On the Long Bets website, “bets” on forecasts are not limited to the current year, or the following year, but can extend over several years, or decades, in an operation with well-defined rules where it is not (only) the money that matters .
The forecast with the most bets so far is one that says that a bioterror or bio error (bioerror) will lead to one million deaths in a single event within a six-month period starting no earlier than December 31, 202o. But on the list, there are also bets on the discovery of aliens in our solar system and on the possibility of the population decreasing by 2060.
The arena is designed for forecasts that can be measured in a competitive way, encouraging discussion and debate on the topic. There is money involved, but it is for philanthropic purposes.
Long Bets is a project of The Long Now Foundation and was started in 2003, with several volunteers to manage this betting “bank”.